Facebook has been around for more than five years, but it hit critical mass and exploded in 2009. As the new decade begins, the fallout is blowing over the entire web. Facebook Connect is everywhere, in case you hadn’t heard. We’re talking 60 million users on 80,000 web sites.
The Facebook web site itself has reached 350 million users — a population size between that of the United States and the European Union. This Christmas, web traffic analysis firm Hitwise said Facebook briefly surpassed Google as the most visited web site in the world for the first time.
Several huge changes were made to the site in 2009, and some of them weren’t popular. But many of the changes that perplexed casual users this past year will make more sense when you think about their future implications. Facebook plans to be a lot more than a personal social network for sharing status updates and pictures. There’s no need to be coy; Facebook is in some sense trying to conquer the web over which Google reigned for several years, and in 2010 it’s better poised to do so than any challenger has been to date.
1. Facebook’s Future Started With FriendFeed
If you want to know what the service will be like in 2010, your best bet is to look at the foundation it laid in 2009.
On August 10th, 2009, Facebook acquired real-time social service FriendFeed. Facebook had already copied some of FriendFeed’s (
) innovations — for example, the “Like” feature — but the acquisition was the first step in a radical new direction.
FriendFeed’s staff and leadership were absorbed into the company, and the fate of the site is still unknown. For now it remains operational, but its features are being added to Facebook bit by bit. In 2010, you’ll see even more FriendFeed in your Facebook experience.
2. Facebook Is Committed to Real-Time
On the same day Facebook acquired FriendFeed, it launched a real-time search engine that sorts through the past 30 days of status updates, media, and other news feed posts. The site’s News Feed home page is also real-time now. The timing was probably not coincidental; Facebook was making its intentions clear. Google’s position in search is vulnerable as the web shifts to real-time, and Facebook is stepping up. The dedication to real-time functionality that started with FriendFeed will continue through 2010.
3. Facebook Is Integrating With the Rest of the Web
It’s easy to read what Facebook has done since acquiring FriendFeed as direct competition with Twitter; not only is the service becoming more real-time, it’s becoming more open. Facebook has taken its first steps towards integrating with the rest of the web by deploying Facebook Connect and making its content searchable.
Facebook Connect lets you log into any participating web site using your Facebook account. Assuming you give permission, it also gives that web site access to information on your profile and feed that it might find useful, and lets the site publish information to your feed. For example, Netflix uses Facebook Connect to publish your ratings of movies to your friends. There are competing platforms from Google, Twitter (
), and even MySpace (), but Facebook Connect is by far the most popular. Facebook wants to be the window through which you experience the rest of the web in 2010.
Facebook deployed some controversial changes to its privacy settings in 2009. It eliminated regional networks, and made updates that aren’t limited to just friends or friends of friends available to search engines. Bing began searching Facebook posts first, and Google’s new real-time search feature will push Facebook updates your way, too. Posts popping up in real-time search engines will be a growing source of traffic for Facebook (and plenty of other web sites) in 2010.
4. Facebook Is Adapting to New Regions
Not everyone has blazing fast broadband Internet yet. In some regions, dial-up is still standard. Facebook launched Facebook Lite in September. It’s sort of a challenge to Twitter, sure, but it’s also a way to make Facebook usable for folks who don’t have the resources to deal with the beefier standard version of the site.
And while Facebook dominates in most of the developed world, there are exceptions. Brazil is Google Orkut territory, but Facebook has made it clear it wants to change that. It made its first move by creating a web app that will help you find your Orkut friends on Facebook.
Expect more new things like Facebook Lite, mobile versions of Facebook, and other tools like the Orkut () friend finder to expand Facebook’s global presence in 2010.
5. Facebook Is Considering Virtual Currency
In March we learned that Facebook is mulling over the idea of deploying a virtual currency platform. A PayPal-esque service built into Facebook Connect makes sense; Facebook could take care of billing for thousands of independent web sites already using Connect and take a small cut from each transaction. It hasn’t happened yet, but 2010 could be the year.
Do you have any predictions about Facebook’s plans for the new year or decade? Let us know in the comments.
